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Wednesday, January 10, 2007 

My debate with Karin

While reading Karin's blog, a post about the Israeli plans to strike Iran attracted me to leave a comment that started a nice debate with Karin.
For me:

I do not think Israel will be up to the threat. Iran's nuclear stronghold is too strong for Israel to destroy by itself. At the same time I do not think Bush is so stupid to open a new front for himself. It can be possible later but not now.

However, if we translate the American actions the days before into messages we would find:

  1. America is sending an aircraft carrier to the Gulf (US Virigina) which makes it possible that America is planning for a strike.
  2. America is sending more troops into Iraq (may be to double its forces there), which is an action that makes us sure that it is either preparing to defend Iraq from an expected Irani strike after bombing the nuclear facilities or preparing for an on-land invasion (which is not possible I believe). Or maybe to hold down the Shiia anger after the strike against Iran.

However, it is very stupid if Israel reveals its plans to strike Iran's nuclear facilities because this puts an end to them.

What I am sure of,it is going to get uglier.

While Karin thought that:

Israel HAS nukes, plenty of them - everybody knows that ... and now it is as well abundantly clear why it always refused to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty!!

George W. would HAVE to stand by his partner, he'd have NO choice, and if I, like you, translate the American actions, I DO FIND an imminent danger coming from just these "partners"!!America HAS already several aircraft-carriers in the Golf ... the "US Virginia" is just one MORE ... America, rather George W. would LIKE (I hope to GOD the democrats will be able to avoid that!) to send some more 20,000-40,000 troups to Iraq which , in MY humble opinion, is absolute CRAZINESS! I have NO idea about military and am NO politician, but I have a lot of common sense which tells me that it is:

  1. already OVERDUE TIME TO GET OUT and ...
  2. IF - he'd hypothetically have to double the entire force to "eradicate insurgents" .. another 20,000-40,000 will only increase "insurgency" and attacks on the people .. AND HATRED!

So .. either FULL (what is DEAD-wrong in my eyes) ... or get the hell OUT - NOW!! There will - I believe - NEVER be democracy as long as people won't be READY for it .. and the way groups and sects in Iraq are fighting one another, they ARE NOT and won't be that fast! I don't know why this is so difficult to understand ...In ONE point I have to agree reluctantly though wholeheartedly... it will get MUCH MORE UGLY!!!

I agree with you, Karin it is getting very ugly here. However, at the same time, I believe there is a kind of a tactic behind what was happening the last few days. To sum up:

  1. The American actions (US Virginia and troops increase)
  2. The Israeli operation leak (which is very rare to happen)

I do not believe that the US or Israel will give Iran a strike now. And I find a better translation for their actions. Each country has plans when it comes to the state of being threatened. Iran as well has plans to stop such attacks. The US actions and Israeli leak are just to observe and measure the Irani reaction politically and defensively. Therefore when it is time to attack, they strike with enough knowledge about what to expect during and after the attack.

And yeah still we agree, It is going to get ugly.

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well, both of you have their logic and I guess you both supported your points of view. But I think that after Bush's failure in finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, he has to do something that would prove his policy of "protecting the people of the USA from all the terrorsits in the world (all the Arab countries)". Any way this is just an assumption but what I really know is that, "when the prey birds fly in the sky and the snakes leave their caves, there has to be a victim devoured or poisoned." The situation is ugly and the only sollution is in an impossible union in the Arab world.

The US may have several aircraft carriers in the Gulf, but the USS Virginia is not one of them - its a submarine. Dangerous to Iran in its own way, but it doesn't add another 72 strike aircraft to the area and I doubt if its cruise missiles would be much use for taking out Iran's underground nuclear sites.
Still you should never allow the facts to get in the way of a good conspiracy theory.

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